CBSL
USD/LKR334.97|
EUR/LKR388.87|
OPR9.40%|
AWPR8.00%|
T-Bill 91d10.02%|
T-Bill 364d10.16%|
Brent$78.3|
NCPI4.7% YoY|
USD/LKR334.97|
EUR/LKR388.87|
OPR9.40%|
AWPR8.00%|
T-Bill 91d10.02%|
T-Bill 364d10.16%|
Brent$78.3|
NCPI4.7% YoY|
HomeAnalytical Methodology

Analytical Methodology

How Rovana AI analyses every CSE stock — the three pillars that power the platform. All outputs are informational; nothing here constitutes investment advice.

Every Saturday, all 296 CSE stocks are analysed across nine quantitative dimensions. Each dimension captures a distinct aspect of a company's quality — from balance sheet strength to statistical price behaviour. The dimensions are combined into a single composite score, which maps to a five-tier output. No single dimension drives the result; the model is deliberately multi-factor to avoid single-metric distortions.

D1Profitability

How efficiently the company generates returns from its assets and equity. A strong profitability dimension signals a business with durable competitive advantages.

Return on Assets (ROA)
Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
D2Financial Health

Balance sheet resilience — debt levels, liquidity, and the ability to service obligations through economic cycles.

Debt-to-Equity ratio
Current ratio
Interest coverage
D3Valuation

Whether the stock is attractively priced relative to its earnings, book value, and sector peers — identifying value before the market does.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E)
Price-to-Book (P/B)
Sector-relative valuation
D4Growth

Revenue, earnings, and free cash flow growth across multiple horizons — identifying compounding businesses with expanding economic moats.

Revenue growth (1Y / 3Y)
EPS growth trajectory
Free cash flow growth
D5Management Efficiency

How effectively leadership deploys capital. Great businesses earn superior returns on every rupee reinvested.

Asset turnover
Capital allocation quality
Operational efficiency ratio
D6Technical Momentum

Price momentum and trend strength — not used as a standalone signal, but as confirmation that the fundamental picture is playing out in price action.

RSI (14-day)
Distance from MA50 & MA200
Trend direction score
D7Volume Dynamics

The relationship between volume and price movement. Institutional accumulation leaves footprints in volume data before it appears in price.

Volume trend
Price-volume confirmation
Accumulation / distribution signals
D8Macro Sensitivity

Exposure to the current CBSL macro environment. Rate-sensitive sectors behave very differently depending on the monetary policy cycle.

CBSL rate environment score
Fiscal stress indicator
Macro headwind / tailwind
D9Statistical Edge

Incorporates the Granger causality verdict — whether a statistically significant volume→price lead relationship exists for this specific stock.

Granger causality significance
Lead-lag confidence score
Optimal lag (trading days)

Composite Tier Output

APEXTop-tier composite. Strong across most dimensions with positive momentum and macro alignment.
HIGHAbove-average composite. Fundamentally sound with supportive technicals.
WATCHMixed signals. Some strong dimensions are offset by weaknesses — monitor for a catalyst.
STABLEAverage composite. No compelling thesis in either direction right now.
CAUTIONBelow-average composite with broad weakness across multiple dimensions.

Tiers are relative — APEX and CAUTION represent the top and bottom of the current universe, not absolute thresholds. Scores are recalculated every Saturday and reflect the most recent publicly available data.